Monday, November 14, 2005

 Holeydonut does some trading...

I've traded Big Z and Ridnour to get Bogut and Maurice Williams. Sounds crazy at first, but I hope it works out for my benefit. Click the above image to see the breakdown full size of these 4 players so far this season.

Okay, so after 2 weeks, I'm already taking some drastic measures on trying to repair a team that is on a crash course towards the crapper. I already felt that I got hosed taking Kobe in Round 1, and things are only getting worse as I realize just how bad my draft is panning out. I made some bad picks beyond my core group of ballers, and my team is just all messed up.

I am basically left with 2 huge concerns. One, is that my theory to to just blow off the FG% and AST needs to be re-assessed. With Kobe taking all these inside shots, I cannot assume that his downtown 3pm will be sufficient to win me that category. That, and Kobe is taking so many shots that I have to assume that if he keeps up a 46% clip, I actually have a chance of making my team a pretty good FG% club. Luckily, I already had a pretty good shooting PG in Terry (he shot over 50% last year), and Artest and Prince generally shoot fairly well. I did not draft these 3 guys because of their shooting prowess - I got them for their all-around stat sheet stuffing. But, as it turns out, I'll have to rely on them now for their shooting.

This basically left me with a problem. Ridnour and big Z are horrible from the field and they both turn the ball over like crazy. Kobe is also a turnover machine, but he's actually not doing so badly considering he touches the ball almost every time down the court. As I mentioned before, I had already given up on Assists... and I had Ridnour on my squad for his steals. Unfortunately, he's just kicking my team's butt with his TOs and low FG%. He's not canning anything from downtown. Last, I really doubt he'll keep up his 100% from the charity stripe.

So, I wanted to find a C that could shoot from the field well and get rebounds, and I wanted a G that could hit some three pointers and not kill me from the charity stripe. My bargaining chips were a Big Z that really was underperforming and a guard that is at risk of losing PT due to his lackluster defense. Yes, they were both starters - but neither was putting up solid numbers and gaining their coach's confidence.

So, I spied what I could possibly get for my chips... and my research landed on Maurice Williams and Bogut. Yes, they are both on the same team, but they both have amazing upside.

About Mo..... TJ Ford and Williams split time at the point - but Maurice is also getting time at the 2. He actually has some range to put up shots - he just hasn't had the chance to in previous years. Damon Jones took most of those shots in 03-04 and fighting for James for PT in 04-05 made Mo less likely to chuck. Desmond Mason also tended to steal the downtown looks in years past as he didn't like to play inside. But, this year, Redd is getting keyed up on, and Simmons is more potent at mid-range compared to Mason. There's a reason that Mason isn't gelling in NOK - and that's because they already have Speedy, Paul, and JR who like to hang out at the perimeter... Mason just isn't fitting in in an evironment with established outside players. For the Bucks in 05-06, I like that Maurice is getting downtown looks, and he's hitting them... which is more than I can say about the poor-shooting Ridnour.

About Bogut...... The guy is a double-double dude waiting to happen (Think Okafor in 04-05); and Bogut should keep a decent percentage from the field since he takes most of his shots at a close range. Yes, 10/10 with some blocks may seem kind of a reach for a guy who has to battle with Joe Smith for PT. But say to yourself "Bogut has to Battle with Joe Smith for playing time." Losing significant PT to Joe Smith doesn't happen unless you're name is Dan Gadzuric or are a washed up Tony Kukoc and your team is losing big time. The Bucks are doing great this year, and Bogut is going to be an integral part of the success of this squad. He will get his minutes unless he stabs somebody at a night club. Big Z is looking pretty bad this year. He's getting his points, but some of his shots are forced. His FG% is suffering horribly and there are stints where the Cav's will even try Gooden at C against smaller teams. Z isn't making good use of his minutes, and I don't like where his season is headed.

Basically, I end up coming out on top in terms of 3PM and FG% and I lose out on Ridnour's steals and assists. I doubt making my team the 11th best in assists versus the 14th team in assits is going to help me much. Everybody who matches up with me will win assists - no question. But, this is the only chance I have of doing a big change on my team without a super-crazy overhaul... and I'm gambling on these Bucks' upside.

Really, I'm not expecting super-grand things out of this trade, but I really had to dump Z and Ridnour before the lose more minutes or get demoted. Yes, I was offered a trade for Big Z which would have gotten me Ben Wallace... but then I would have ahd to give up Tayshaun as well? No way I can do that type of trade. I guess I could have counter-offered with Ridnour in that package, but I think I'm getting more value out of doing 2 trades like this instead of a 2 for 1 with ADWCTA.

Last, if JR Smith comes through with more 3PM, my team has a fighting chance. I'm excited :)

6 Comments:

At 5:49 AM, Blogger holeydonut said...

Awww crap, not Arroyo's backup!!!! Man, I got James and Williams all mixed up when I was looking at the PGs.

Haha, I am owned.

 
At 9:58 AM, Blogger holeydonut said...

Naw, I'm not touching a single backcourt Raptor this year. This includes Jalen Rose, MoPete, and all the other swing-foolios they have. I think diaster-teams like the Raptors make you more frustrated than anything in the long run... I prefer to get players on winning squads due to the fact that they don't start to shut down players once the season is over. But, of course, I make an exception for JR Smith since he is so cool.

But, if James were on the Bucks and Mo Will was on the Raptors - I would have chucked the trade towards James instead.

 
At 10:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

holey, what program/site do you go to do get all the stats like that laid out?...especially how you show the weekly results and compare to each other...thanks...

phil

 
At 10:18 AM, Blogger holeydonut said...

Hi Phil,

I just have an excel spreadsheet. I cut and paste from the matchup overview that Yahoo gives for each pair of teams... and I put those results into my spreadsheet to calculate the rankings.

I was going to go so far as to set up an Access database, but I'm really not that big of a nerd. Historically, I've never even cared to do the matchups in H2H leagues - but I figure I have to take this league seriouslly :)

I guess I'll have to come up with a way to graph teams over time - I wonder how easy/hard that will be...

 
At 12:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i see everyone with ratings for teams, just wondering how is ur formula done?? If u feel comfortable revealing it.

DGLitcH

 
At 1:40 PM, Blogger holeydonut said...

Uh, my rating is just taking the arithmatic mean of their ranks across all categories - there is no weighting for one category versus another. So, the "Average Rank" just represents the average of all the ranks. Nothing fancy :)

But really, to make this a robust and effective test, I would have to throw out (or weight less) categories that someone obviously is giving up on. If you are dead last by a massive margin in FG% - that rank of 14 shouldn't be so bad as compared to someone who is trying to be good in FG% but is rated 12 out of the 14 teams.

I'm just not advanced enough to try and objectively calculate that stuff.

 

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